Both of the Candidates Will Keep Wasting Our Money

In response to Andrew’s vehemently anti-Obama invective, let me run some numbers to show the real effect of the candidates’ promised spending plans and tax plans on the national debt.

McCain wants to increase annual spending by $92 billion.
Obama wants to increase annual spending by $293 billion.
(Source: National Taxpayers Union)

McCain’s tax plan (as described in stump speeches) as of July: (all changes are compared to 2008)

Year	∆ Revenue (bn)	∆ Spending (bn)	∆ Balance (bn)
2009	-383.8	+92	-475.8
2010	-429.9	+92	-521.9
2011	-606.6	+92	-698.6
2012	-701.7	+92	-793.7

(Source: Tax Policy Center)

Obama’s tax plan (as described in stump speeches) as of August:

Year	∆ Revenue (bn)	∆ Spending (bn)	∆ Balance (bn)
2009	+10.8	+293	-282.2
2010	-52.2	+293	-345.2
2011	-194.1	+293	-487.1
2012	-272.6	+293	-565.6

(Source: Tax Policy Center)

Thus if McCain does everything he promises (no more, no less), the deficit will increase by $794 billion by the end of his term. If the government borrows exactly the amount of the shortfall each year (a slight oversimplification) national debt will increase $2.5 trillion.

Thus if Obama does everything he promises (no more, no less) the deficit will increase by $566 billion by the end his term. If the government borrows exactly the amount of the shortfall each year national debt will increase $1.7 trillion.

When the budget deficit increases, the extra spending (amount of the deficit) must be made up for; usually, they sell Treasury bonds (money now) that will pay off with a premium (interest) in the future (pay back later). Since the bonds are really borrowing money, the total issuance of these bonds is the national debt. Thus, by fiscal year 2012, both candidates would increase the national debt, but McCain would increase it more than Obama would. And neither would get it anywhere close to $20 trillion.

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