• Frank
  • Mar 20,2008
  • In: News

Recession?


Despite what Great Decider Bush has pronounced, the US seems more and more likely to fall into a recession.

From The Economist blog:

Weekly jobless claims rose by 22,000 last week, a far higher increase than had been expected, and the average over four weeks reached its lowest level since the the active hurricane season of 2005. Meanwhile, the OECD lowered its forecasts for American economic growth to 0.1 percent during the first three months of the year and zero for the second three months.

Expectations of a pronounced economic slowdown are finally working through to commodities prices. Gold has fallen over $100 from recent highs, and crude prices dipped back below $100 per barrel. The dollar also recovered some recent lost ground against major currencies.

The economic definition of a full recession is negative GDP growth for two or more consecutive quarters. We’re starting to see the signs, though: just in the past few days we’ve seen capital goods and commodities contract and deflate and unemployment rise.

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